Results of a new national poll carried out by NBC News were circulated. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
NBC News poll results
Of those who replied, 51.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 24 to October 30 among 4081 participants. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-1.0 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they often include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump. To compare: 55.4% was gained by Clinton in the NBC News poll on October 13, for Trump this result was only 44.6%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. In comparison to numbers in the NBC News poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.2 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is insignificant.