Montana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 40.8% for Clinton, and 59.2% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to collect 40.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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