Montana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead
The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 40.8% for Clinton, and 59.2% for Trump in Montana. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to collect 40.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.1% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.