Michigan: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 53.5% of the two-party vote share in Michigan, while Trump will end up with 46.5%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to garner 46.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not be overly confident the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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