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Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 41.0% for Clinton, and 59.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to achieve 59.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 58.7% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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