Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model is part of the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.4% for Clinton, and 48.6% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Single index models should be interpreted with caution, because they can contain large biases. Rather, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results vs. other index models

Clinton currently achieves 53.0% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent index models. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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