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Iowa: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.6% for Clinton, and 50.4% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to achieve 49.7% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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