The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 64.8% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, while Trump will win 35.2%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to end up with 64.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 70.1% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.