Results of a new poll conducted by WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA were circulated. The poll asked respondents from Georgia for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 49.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 25 to October 27, among a random sample of 593 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual poll. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 46.2% for Clinton and 53.9% for Trump. In the latest WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll on July 31 Clinton obtained 47.7%, while Trump obtained only 52.3%.
Results compared to other polls
Trump currently achieves 51.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Georgia. In comparison to his numbers in the WXIA-TV/SurveyUSAWXIA/SUSA poll Trump's poll average is 2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 51.9% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.