Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Remington Research (R) poll results
The results show that billionaire Donald Trump and former First Lady Hillary Clinton can draw on identical levels of support, each with 46.0% of the vote.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1646 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.3% and Trump 48.7% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 1.3 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is significant.