Virginia: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.9% for Clinton, and 46.2% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 54.3% of the vote.

In Virginia, the popular vote is usually close. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't be too confident the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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