Crosstab model in Virginia: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 54.4% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will end up with 45.6%.

In Virginia, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data. The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.4% of the two-party vote in Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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