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Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 48.8% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, while Trump will end up with 51.2%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to collect 49.2% of the vote.

Historically, Ohio has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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