Crosstab model in North Carolina: Clinton is in the lead
The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 50.8% of the two-party vote share in North Carolina, whereas Trump will win 49.2%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to collect 48.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.7% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.