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Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 59.2% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 40.8%. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was still predicted to achieve 41.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.5% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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