Nevada: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 51.3% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.7%. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.4% of the vote.

Historically, Nevada has been a swing state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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