Crosstab model in Montana: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 40.7% of the two-party vote share in Montana, whereas Trump will win 59.3%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to win 59.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Montana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Montana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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