Crosstab model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 45.3% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will end up with 54.7%. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was still predicted to garner 55.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Missouri.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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