Crosstab model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead
The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 41.0% for Clinton, and 59.0% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was predicted to win 58.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, one should not rely too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.