Crosstab model in Iowa: Trump is in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 50.9%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 49.5% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

Individual models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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