The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.5% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 50.5%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to obtain 50.4% of the vote.
In Iowa, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.