Crosstab model in Colorado: Clinton is in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 52.7% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, while Trump will win 47.3%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to obtain 47.0% of the vote.

Colorado is traditionally a battleground state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have historically won similar levels of support among voters. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is regarded critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Colorado. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Colorado.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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