California: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 64.1% for Clinton, and 35.9% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to collect 36.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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