California: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead
The Crosstab model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 64.1% for Clinton, and 35.9% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to collect 36.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.