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Crosstab model: Clinton is in the lead


The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to collect 53.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. Compared to numbers in the Crosstab model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.5 percentage points lower.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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