Connecticut: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 57.7% for Clinton, and 42.3% for Trump in Connecticut. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was still predicted to achieve 42.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 2.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Connecticut.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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