UPI/CVOTER published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The results show that real estate developer Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton are on equal standing, each with 48.0% of the vote.
The Internet poll was in the field between October 23 and October 29. The sample size was 1317 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often include large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump concerning the two-party vote share. On October 23 Clinton obtained 52.1% in the UPI/CVOTER poll and Trump obtained only 47.9%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.9% of the two-party vote. When compared to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 2.9 percentage points worse in the poll. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% and Trump 46.5% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.5 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is significant.