Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 48.0% of participants indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11, among a random sample of 1043 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. In the latest Emerson poll on September 5 Clinton obtained 58.8%, while Trump obtained only 41.2%.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, Polly's forecast is 5.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is significant.