California: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

The Crosstab model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 64.0% for Clinton, and 36.0% for Trump in California. In comparison, on October 30, Clinton was predicted to gain 64.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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