Results of a new poll carried out by KABC/SurveyUSA were spread. The poll asked participants from California for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who answered the question, 56.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 13 and October 15. The sample size was 725 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 63.7% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this difference is insignificant.