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Arkansas: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 39.5% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 60.5%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to collect 40.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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