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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.5% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.5%. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was predicted to garner 47.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 50.4% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. In comparison to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 2.1 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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