PPP (D) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from West Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 30.0% of interviewees would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 57.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from April 29 to May 1. A total of 1201 likely voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 34.5% for Clinton and 65.5% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.2 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.