Results of a new poll carried out by University of WashingtonUniv. Of Washington were distributed. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
University of WashingtonUniv. Of Washington poll results
The results show that 53.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 6 to October 13 among 750 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 57.6% for Clinton and 42.4% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.4 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.