Results of a new poll carried out by Vermont Public Radio were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Vermont for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Vermont Public Radio poll results
Of those who replied, 45.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 17.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 14 among 579 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 72.6% for Clinton and 27.4% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, Polly's prediction is 5.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.