Results of a new poll conducted by WCAX – BurlingtonWCAX were spread. The poll asked participants from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
WCAX - BurlingtonWCAX poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants indicated to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 22.0% indicated to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 19 and October 22. The sample size was 603 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial biases. Rather than relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 69.4% for Clinton and 30.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.