Results of a new poll administered by PPIC were announced. The poll asked respondents from California for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of participants plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 14 and October 23. The sample size was 1024 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often include substantial errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton can currently count on 63.8% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in California. Relative to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.