Today, PollyVote predicts that Clinton will garner 53.6% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.4% for Trump.
Looking at Polly's components
There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Aggregated polls predict a vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, which is the closest to PollyVote's forecast. With a vote share of 57.9% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 4.6 percentage points.
Compared to historical elections, the Democrats' forecast of 50.4% in econometric models is noticeably high. The last time the forecast exceeded that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 52.9% for the Democratic candidate Barack Obama.