Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 49.1% for Clinton, and 50.9% for Trump in Ohio.

In Ohio, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Single models can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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