Emerson published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
In Ohio, the election outcome is usually close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Emerson poll results
The results show that the two candidates can draw on the same level of support, each with 45.0% of the vote.
The poll was carried out between October 26 and October 27. The sample size was 800 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.8% and Trump 49.2% of the two-party vote in Ohio. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Ohio. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.