Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17, among a random sample of 611 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which uses different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 62.5% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in New York. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 63.3% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.