Quinnipiac published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Iowa were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Quinnipiac poll results
Of those who responded, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 20 and October 26. The sample size was 791 likely voters. Given the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 49.5% for Clinton and 50.5% for Trump. To compare: Only 46.8% was gained by Clinton in the Quinnipiac poll on September 21, for Trump this result was 53.2%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump currently runs at 50.9% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Iowa. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Quinnipiac poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 49.2% of the two-party vote in Iowa. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.