Results of a new poll administered by Morning Call were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Pennsylvania for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Morning Call poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees indicated that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 26 among 420 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, since they can include substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 52.9% for Clinton and 47.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Pennsylvania sees Clinton at 53.2% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Morning Call poll Clinton's poll average is 0.3 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Pennsylvania. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.1 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.