Results of a new national poll carried out by IBD were published. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
IBD poll results
According to the results, 45.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 41.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 29 with 1013 respondents. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they often include large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. On October 28 Clinton obtained 52.9% in the IBD poll and Trump obtained only 47.1%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls has Clinton at 53.1% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the IBD poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points better. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.8% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 1.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.