Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were circulated. The poll asked participants from Wisconsin for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 48.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 26 to October 27 with 400 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump. On April 3 Clinton received 56.0% in the Emerson poll and Trump received only 44.1%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.