Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5. A total of 600 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial biases, and should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 67.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's error margin.