Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Connecticut were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5, among a random sample of 1000 likely voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-3.0 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, don't focus too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.0 point above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.