Results of a new poll administered by WBUR/MassINC were announced. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16 with 502 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Instead of relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 67.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Massachusetts. Compared to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.8 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is insignificant.