Maryland: 29 points lead for Clinton in latest OpinionWorks poll
By Results of a new poll conducted by OpinionWorks were released. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
According to the results, 54.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, one should not focus too much on the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.5% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is negligible.
