Press Herald/UNH published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Press Herald/UNH poll results
The results show that 48.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 37.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 25 with 670 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 56.5% for Clinton and 43.5% for Trump. For comparison: Only 52.0% was obtained by Clinton in the Press Herald/UNH poll on September 20, for Trump this result was 48.1%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maine polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.8%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Press Herald/UNH poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Maine. Hence, Polly's prediction is 1.0 point below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.