Press Herald/UNH published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Press Herald/UNH poll results
The results show that 40.0% of respondents are going to give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% are going to give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between September 15 and September 20. The sample size was 513 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 52.0% for Clinton and 48.1% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine sees Clinton at 53.9% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Press Herald/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points higher. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is insignificant.