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Keys to the White House model shows Trump in the lead

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The Keys to the White House model is captured in the index models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 49.7% for Clinton, and 50.3% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single index models, as they often incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Looking at an average of index models, Trump's current two-party vote share is at 46.9%. Compared to numbers in the Keys to the White House index model Trump's index model average is 3.4 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 46.1% of the two-party vote. The results of the Keys to the White House model for Trump are thus 4.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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